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Speculators May Cause Hikes in Uranium Prices

May 9th, 2011

Speculators May Cause Hikes in Uranium Prices

Summary: TradeTech LLC Chief Executive Gene Clark talked with StockInterview about the uranium bull market, where his price models show uranium prices heading and when to expect the peak of the current upward cycle of the bull market. When will “hard” times again hit the uranium market, and how long will the trough last? And what does the future hold for the uranium price? An industry insider gives us his insights.

StockInterview: When the uranium bull market began, did you foresee /pound uranium, now that the spot price has risen above this level?

Gene Clark:
I don’t think any of us saw per pound coming. We had price projections at the time that indicated probably per pound, which would be a long term equilibrium price in constant dollar terms. But, I think it was a surprise the price went up so high. I think what’s going, the biggest factor right now, is the advent of the so called hedge funds or speculator fund and groups of people. The price started to go up, and they came into the market with the express purpose of buying for holding and then selling into the market later to realize the trading profit. In 2005, the hedge funds were responsible for purchasing about 10 million pounds of the 29 million pounds purchased. I think the market is now finally adjusting to the realities of primary supply and demand. It’s been a depressed market for 20 or 30 years, primarily from the draw down of excess inventories, and what we call secondary supply.

StockInterview: Will the speculators remain active in driving the spot uranium price higher?

Gene Clark:
I think there is still some room for further speculation activity. Uranium Participation Corporation, for example, is rumored to be about to come to the equities market again to raise funds for another purchase. They’re asking for authority to buy UF6, as well as U308, and different forms of uranium than they were locked into before. Whether it be at the 10 million pound level (size of purchase), I think it kind of depends on where the market goes. If it tends to flatten out, then I think there’s going to be obviously less interest on their part. When they were active in the market, they, of course, wanted the price to go up. Therefore, they weren’t too careful about what they paid for uranium. I think that’s a part of it. In the long run, it was due for a readjustment to reflect prices of the cost of new production facilities. But, the hedge funds came in and kind of overdrove the market. Eventually, what it’s going to wind up doing is, if they sell off, it could have the impact of driving prices back down below where they would otherwise have gone.

StockInterview: Did the speculators interfere with the trading efficiency of the uranium market?

Gene Clark:
In theory, speculators come in, tend to take the risk and smooth out market prices. But, it never really works out that way. They always come in and only take the risk, if there’s an opportunity to make money. So some people make a lot of money. It does tend to upset the market. If you get away from the primary users of uranium and primary producers of uranium as your market participants, then you tend to introduce more noise than you would like.

StockInterview: With that in mind, in which direction are your price projections going?

Gene Clark:
We’re actually updating our uranium price forecast right now. We haven’t decided on a reference case yet. The reference cases we’re looking at will peak at about to per pound in about three years, and will then drop off pretty drastically. It has to do with a selling of the speculator reserves, the uranium that’s being held (for speculative purposes). I can see it coming back down to , maybe below per pound. Then, in the long run – out through 2020 – getting easily back up over per pound.

StockInterview: Are you predicting a down cycle during the course of the uranium bull market?

Gene Clark:
Yes. It’s pretty consistent with everything we’re doing with the changes in requirements, in different cases of high, low, and medium demand. Our modeling system is projecting this. It has to do with the supply and demand balance and the cost on the margin. The way to describe it is that prices have come to a point now of higher than we would have projected them to be, such that the supply is going to evolve. The large low cost projects will reach a point where supply then overshoots demand for a few years, which causes the price to come back down. Then demand growth, in the long run, picks up and puts a lot of pressure on the supply market to be able to meet the demand. So you wind up with pressure toward the end of the period.
StockInterview: But the markets are finicky, filled with variables, and can frequently trick price models.

Gene Clark:
Here’s what it would take to shoot that down: We have a problem with small numbers, and there are some very large projects – Cigar Lake, for example. The expansion of Olympic Dam in Australia would be going from about 12 million pounds of production to over 30 million pounds, if they finish. If you shift that out by four or five years, or if the owner decides, “No, we’re not going to expand at all,” you have a drastic effect. Then you would wind up with 0 per pound uranium, I think.

StockInterview: What are your estimates on the peak price years and the bottom years?

Gene Clark:
A lot of things could change, but here is what we’re looking at. In one case scenario, the speculators are really going to stay out of the market and holding onto their stuff for a long time. If so, then we’re going to be at the peak by the end of this year. If they stay active in the market and buying, then that stretches it out further. Depending on the scenario, we see the peak possibly at 2008 or so. I would say we’re looking at a trough around the timeframe of 20011 to 2013. Then back up after that.

StockInterview: How do you arrive at your weekly numbers for the spot uranium price?

Gene Clark:
We get our data from all of the key sources: the utility fuel managers, sales staff and management of uranium producers and processors, and uranium traders, brokers and asset managers. Some are, of course, more cooperative than others, and whom we call depends on the type of information we are seeking. Since our price indicators are a judgment call, we often focus on the losers in particular recent transactions, as those will be the next to make offers in the market.

StockInterview: Let’s back up a bit. Why has uranium gone up past the levels of the “cost of production,” which would place the spot price between and /pound?

Gene Clark:
The biggest factor, in signaling the market, was when utilities went out for long term bid requests. They found they reached a period in which producers would have to build new facilities. Producers building those facilities felt, “I have to make at least enough profit to cover the construction costs for those facilities.” That was much higher than the market at the time. Basically, you reached a point where the chief stuff has been sold. Now, we have to actually spend some money, some capital, to build new facilities, new mines and new mills. That was, I think, the earliest signal of the price needing to adjust.

StockInterview: Isn’t there a ton of hype across all media channels about the “nuclear renaissance” and the demand for more nuclear energy?

Gene Clark:
First of all, all the hype about nuclear renaissance is really in the United States. The Chinese have had plans to expand for a long time. The Japanese have been steadily adding new capacity. Koreans have been adding new capacity. Indians have been adding new capacity all along, all the way through this, even before we started this discussion on nuclear renaissance. I think that phrase is really focused more in the United States., which really hasn’t ordered a plant since 1976 or something like that. There is a boom. Maybe it’s the uranium renaissance.

StockInterview: Is all of what we’ve been reading just plain hype?

Gene Clark:
There is some hype, but there is also some substance. A part of it is certainly a change in public attitude about nuclear power. If I was riding on an airplane, ten years ago, and someone asked me what I did for a living, I was guaranteed to have a lousy trip, arguing about nuclear power. When I mention it now, I get a positive response. There’s been a market shift in public attitude about nuclear power. From the standpoint of the utilities that would be ordering nuclear plants. To the extent that they need new capacity, looking at nuclear now is not off the drawing boards, partly because of public attitude. The industry has been moving through this trough period, preparing itself for a new era. It remains to be seen when the first order comes. But when the first actual order of a nuclear power plant, along with the license application does come, I think you’ll see several U.S. utilities following, probably five utilities very actively involved.

StockInterview: When will that actually happen?

Gene Clark:
I think it will come within the next five years, the ordering process. Of course it will be probably another eight years before we actually see the first power plant from that process. We’re talking probably about 13 years. That’s how long it takes. You can actually construct one in 48 months, but you have to have been through the licensing. If you don’t believe the anti-nuclear people are going to be psyched up to fight the first plant coming through, then you’d be very naïve. The first one is going to be more difficult and take more time, I think.

StockInterview: One anti-nuclear group told us they do not believe we’ll have more nuclear power plants in the United States.

Gene Clark:
That’s possible, but given the current circumstances, my guess is we will have more nuclear plants. We need the capacities, whether we’re going to build coal plants (or other types of power generating plants). I just came from California, moved here (to North Carolina) six months ago. They were talking about building gas-fired plants for base load generation, which is the most ridiculous thing you can imagine. The plants are cheap to build, but the fuel cost is exorbitant. I did a speech a couple of years ago, having looked at the Energy Information Administration’s projections of gas demand. All the growth and natural gas demand is going to be in the electric utility sector. We are going to be importing 60 percent of our gas supplies by 2020. Does that make any sense? No. We have a lot of coal, but there are lots of complaints about coal burning. In our state of North Carolina, the attorney general is actually suing the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for the damage from coal burning of the TVA’s power plants in the adjacent state, in Tennessee. There’s going to be continued pressure on coal burning. I think nuclear has as good a shot as any in terms of new capacity.

StockInterview: Some critics have argued China and India will not be able to afford the massive nuclear power plant build up they’ve envisioned.

Gene Clark:
If you think the Chinese are going to have any problem financing things, you’d better think twice. Let’s focus on India. India is a clear case where, and it is a good rule of thumb, one percent growth in gross domestic product requires one percent growth in electricity requirement. For India to grow economically, it needs electric power. Where are they going to get it? They have coal plants there, as well. Once you use up all your hydro capacity, you really don’t have much to choose from, except coal, natural gas, and nuclear. To the extent that they can have economic growth and income, coming into their country, they would be able to finance nuclear power plants. My guess is they’re going to get the vendors of the nuclear plant to finance them.

StockInterview: Are you talking about the French?

Gene Clark:
Cogema and Primaton – the companies that construct the nuclear plants. Financing is generally part of the package. The first plants in China were basically financed by the French government. If the French go into India, you’ll see the same thing. The Russians have financed plants for developing countries. That’s not unusual for them to do. The United States may, or may not, get involved. I think there have been some types of guarantees in the past, but not at the same level as the Russians and French do it. I think those are the big choices. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the South Koreans involved in the reactor export market. They’ve pretty much developed their own technology now. They have the capability of building 100 percent of a nuclear power plant in South Korea: the pressure vessels, all the steel requirements. They can do it all. We really haven’t seen them export yet, because they’ve used up all their manufacturing capacity for their own program. At some stage, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. And I think they would be able to finance reactor export sales.

StockInterview: How are the U.S. utilities going to fare in getting their “share” of uranium to fuel our domestic nuclear power plants in the context of the apparent overwhelming Asian demand?

Gene Clark:
In reality, the U.S. utilities, which tend to wait longer to contract, are going to be the ones on the losing end because the Chinese and the Indians will contract early. The implication is the Chinese and Indians are not going to be able to find enough uranium for their new plants. They are committing for supplies way out into the future. When the U.S. guys come to the market, they’re going to look around say, “Oh blankety- blank, what happened? Where’s the uranium?” They’ll be the ones that sat around. I think that is what’s going to happen unless things really change in the way contracting is done in the United States.

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U.s. Gov?t, Architects of Hedge Funds Cause Collapse of America?s Real Estate Economy

January 22nd, 2011

U.s. Gov?t, Architects of Hedge Funds Cause Collapse of America?s Real Estate Economy

U.s. Gov’t, Architects of Hedge Funds Cause Collapse of America’s Real Estate Economy

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U.s. Gov’t, Architects of Hedge Funds Cause Collapse of America’s Real Estate Economy

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U.S. Gov’t, Architects of Hedge Funds Cause Collapse of America’s Real Estate Economy

By: Robert W. Hand

Designated Broker/Owner

Equity Alliance Properties

www.equityallianceproperties.com

Subprime Crisis? Heavens no, this is a complete collapse of the national real estate business sector of the U.S. economy, with the mortgage companies and the federal government right at the heart of the matter. The effects of the national real estate business enterprise breakdown with the subprime debacle well underway can be felt throughout every economic sector, including Wall Street.

Of course, there are still those on Wall Street profiteering on the broken back of the real estate business economy. These investors originated, and still draw huge amounts of interest on “interest only” loans, and are the beneficiaries of the federal government’s deliberately slow actions to remedy this fundamentally simple matter.

For most Americans, the most significant form of wealth we have is in the equity in our homes. Americans are losing their real estate endowments, and the effect of a broken real estate business sector has brought the general economy to its knees. The masses are feeling it while the rich get richer. That’s right, the guys still making money off of these high interest loan products make the headlines saying, “Just let time fix it”. You didn’t think they were out of the game did you? Who do you think these “interest only” loan payments continue to be paid to? The longer this thing takes to get fixed, the longer they will continue to draw huge dividends on their “interest only” loan products that by design were never intended to be paid back as no money ever goes toward principal. Strong lobby money representing those interests is slowing down the process in Washington where debts take time to repay, with a nod and a wink.

I released an article last month (http://paradisevalleyblog.com/2007/11/crisis-or-opportunity-truth-about.html)portraying the number of incidences of loans in default as a small fraction of the number of loans overall, a number which is steadily climbing. Nevertheless, keeping those numbers in perspective, that still leaves, by some estimates, 1.1 million Americans losing their residential properties over the next 6 years.

Yes, this is a simple matter and it can be fixed with cash money, go figure. Let’s put the numbers of dollars to fix this problem into perspective in a fashion to which we’ve all grown accustomed; comparing it to the money we spend on the occupation of Iraq. To continue our

military occupation in Iraq the U.S. Taxpayers pay: 0 million every day; .4 billion per month; a total of 0 billion spent and approved War-spending; another 0 billion requested for 2008 which would bring the cumulative total to 0 billion. There have been billion mismanaged and wasted in Iraq per Feb 2007 hearings. There have been .4 billion Halliburton overcharges classified by the Pentagon as “unreasonable and unsupported”. 20 billion was paid to former Halliburton division, KBR for food, fuel, housing, and other items. Pentagon auditors deem that .2 billion of that is “questionable and unsupportable”. Some figures predict the cost of the Iraq war topping out at

over trillion.

Just a small fraction of the capital Halliburton defrauded U.S. taxpayers out of alone would fix our mortgage crisis, would mend the broken real estate business sector of our economy, and would have a positive effect on the overall economy that would far exceed any amount of money we put back into fixing the system. So how much money are we talking about? Congressional Democrats led by Charles Schumer (D-NY) advocate spending just hundreds of millions (less than 1 billion) of dollars into nonprofits to help homeowners and the overall economy. A spokesman for the senator explains he

is not suggesting the government pay off borrower’s loans in full, but believes a mixture of counseling and restructuring of the loans would bring down the costs of the program dramatically. Even if we paid all the loans in full it would be a pittance in contrast to the overall federal budget, let alone the Iraq war budget (if you can call Washington’s fiscal policies budgeting). Further, we can spread the cash outlay to fix the problem over a period of 6

years, according to the rate schedules of the remaining loans in question.

Such a partial bailout is estimated to cost no more than a few hundred million dollars. Compare that to the .4 billion we spend every month bringing “Democracy” to Iraq with combat airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks, and troops. Even if we bail out everyone with a bad loan, what are we talking about in U.S. dollars…a month or two of what we spend rebuilding the Iraq we so surgically blew up? The top runners of the presidential race spill that much in a single weekend at their white tablecloth fundraisers! Appropriation of a relatively small amount of funds would pull our economy out of the tailspin we currently find ourselves in! But who’s suffering…lower middle

class, not the rich. The Bush Whitehouse neoconservatives were just this week exposed in lies and manipulation of intelligence data regarding Iran as a nuclear threat. This exposure shamelessly still has not thwarted Bush’s rhetoric to invade Iran and threats of World War III as he continues to terrorize citizens abroad and here in America. We had better just save our hard earned tax dollars to fight another war on terror in Iran and forget allocating any funds

to fix the U.S. economy which is, after all, only hurting the peasants. The war profiteers belong to the class of the super rich. George Bush should be impeached while he and his closest advisors, including Dick Cheney, should all be formally brought up on charges of international war crimes.

We have seen any number of articles written voicing the opinion, “Why should we pay our tax dollars to bail out some idiot that was just too stupid to know what he was signing,” or invoking such profound truths as, “It’s just a bunch of greedy investors anyway, they knew what they were

doing.” Perhaps those are fair characterizations in some instances, but who pays? We all do. Worse yet, this type of reaction is exactly what the profiteers of this debacle want to continue to hear, so the process remains

stalled by the indecision and lack of common platform by constituents. Profiteers continue to earn big returns on the money already loaned that is not yet in default. This has all been calculated to a “T” and has been executed as planned. Everyone at the top, the architects of the hedge funds, knew this was not designed to last! These were all interest only loans,

which by design, were never intended to be paid back, as nothing is paid to principal.

Most folks who have fallen prey were not stupid at all, but were just trying to secure their family’s future in real estate holdings. Mortgage brokers promised consumers that they could re-finance out of their nasty little adjustable rate 2nds or HELOCs in 6 months to 2 years depending on the loan program, pre-payment penalties, etc. No layperson could predict the market falling so far so fast. Refinancing out of these undesirable loan conditions quickly became a lost option as so many homes declined in value to far less than originally loaned on them. This has caught far too many people off guard, including seasoned investors and real estate

brokers, to write this off as some folks being careless or stupid. It is a more sophisticated problem than that. There are folks that not only predicted this, but calculated exactly what has transpired and are the beneficiaries thus: the major interests in and architects of the hedge funds that back these securities and continue to prosper from grotesque interest rates on “interest only” loans. Understand that they don’t want legislation passed that keeps them

from being able to charge insane amounts of interest as these “interest only” loans mature and reset.

You, the average homeowner pay the price, as do innocent individuals and families just trying to honestly buy their own ‘piece of the rock’. We are ALL losing equity in our homes, (whether you have a mortgage or not), at an alarming rate as property values across the nation continue to decline due to the huge surplus of homes for sale. Some markets are declining much faster than others and we’re talking about significant amounts of depreciation from every homeowner in some metropolitan areas in Arizona, Nevada, California, and Florida, to name a few. As more and more loans go into default, more and more properties go on the market in the form of short sales and foreclosures at well under market value. Increasing numbers of properties hit the market, putting ever more pressure on existing inventories, and dragging prices down further. We are getting to where we have so many short sales and foreclosures on the market that “under market” is the new norm. Our conventional methods for determining current market value and sales price now take into the effective average the

rising numbers of homes with prices slashed. Buyers, seeing the declining market values don’t want to catch a falling knife. Folks who want to buy are waiting until they see evidence of the “bottom” of the market. They won’t perceive any indication of the “bottom” as meaningful unless they see property values hold steady then raise again. This will not happen as long as more defaults, resulting in short sales and foreclosures, continue to flood the

market day after day, week after week, and month after month. Consumers keep asking, as do REALTORs®, “when are we going to see the bottom of this market?” The answer is so simple even a cave man can do it; WHEN WE STOP THE CYCLE!!!

Why then, if it is such a simple fix, are we not already on our way to enjoying the recovery as a result of taking these simple steps. The answer: Greed, and the power of lobbying money on capital hill have the process locked up and bogged down in red tape. Interest is earned over time, and with interest rates already in place for those making money from these “interest only” loans, they want more time to keep lining their pockets. This expresses one of the most frequently used relations in Algebra: Principal x Rate x Time = Interest Earned. Time is on their side; the super rich who invested in the hedge funds that back the mortgage securities we know as subprime loans. They are getting the time they want because this Republican Whitehouse favors big business, big money, and big campaign lobbyist

contributors, well represented in this group. Government is dragging their feet in spending the money to fix the problem at the pleasure of these predators.

So, folks, protect your equity, protect your interest in your own real estate holdings, protect your children’s chances of profitable

real estate holdings in America, and contact the congresspersons and senators whom preside over your districts. Give a positive voice to the budget to fix this problem. It will pay back huge dividends to our economy as a whole as we recover and stop the downward fall of the equity in our own homes.

This type of government subsidized economic recovery would not be without precedent. Consider the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980’s, where the government bailed out S&L’s to the tune of 150 billion 1980’s dollars. We can fix our subprime crisis today for a fraction of that amount.

Currently on the hill, there is proposed legislation to impose new limits on the adjustable rate mortgages scheduled to reset.

Congress has been, and is trying to pass legislation to put a freeze on interest rates. These are band-aids for a bullet wound. Let your voice be heard. Put some pressure on politicians to get this subprime debacle resolved with swift and certain action! It is a simple matter, and the beneficiaries of this thing dragging out are the very entities who caused it in the first place. Together let’s end it, now!

Do you want to play hardball? All right, then let’s consider that the federal government does not want the average American to gain dramatically in personal wealth. Why would that be? Glad you asked. Since the years of Reaganomics and theories of a “trickle down” economy, (always reminds me of being pissed on), and deregulation, our country has moved ever more from the worlds’ shining example of Democracy to a text book example of a Republic aristocracy with the Center of Power no longer held by the masses, the common man. The Power Center is now with the elite, the upper class, the super rich, the multi-billion dollar corporate entities, the Texas based oil brokerage firms that ultimately determine tax code, foreign policy, federal budget allocations, and the decision to go to war, with whom and when, and whom have the power and influence to throw elections.

It does not serve the rich constituents of this elitist government entity strangling America to allow its citizens to amass wealth. No, my friends, that would pull too much of the Power back towards the center. Think Washington doesn’t give any thought to that dynamic? Of course they do. Washington is so paranoid of the power of its citizens that they are breaking constitutional laws or re-writing the constitution as they see fit to ensure “CONTROL”, threatening our basic civil liberties in the process. That’s right, even firefighters, (who can regularly in the course of their duties gain access into people’s homes without a search warrant), are now being trained to look for any signs that a citizen might not agree somehow with government policies and might thus be considered a threat to the government or even a terrorist. What a lot of bullocks. I’m a veteran of the U.S. Navy, whose job was gathering and disseminating intelligence, and have stood for protecting and honoring our nation. Now, it’s obvious I don’t agree with government policies. They would now view me as a threat! Sounds more like a Republic regime than a

Democracy. Sounds a lot like World War II Germany doesn’t it? Well, that’s America today, as we know it. Are you more comfortable with your head in the sand? That’s ok, go back to sleep, this article is about over. Germany went from a Nation of knowing to a nation of believing. Are we following in their footsteps as foolhardy, good-willed, ignorant patriots? Too often, we blindly

believe the lies told by the President and his government instead of challenging others and ourselves with the truth. I remember as a child learning of the atrocities in Germany under Hitler and asking, “How could all those people let this happen?” and “how could all those people have been fooled by their government?” In the words of Bob Dylan; “Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings; steal a little and they throw you in jail; steal a lot and they make you king.” This country has been preying on the good will of its unsuspecting citizens and it will be our undoing if we don’t wake up.

Many Americans were making big money during the real estate boom, in large part due to the ease with which funds were available to acquire primary and investment real estate. So many of us bought in to it, and for most, it has only benefited the lending institutions. Once the real estate investment game became profitable for the common citizen, it would self-destruct right before our eyes. The timing was calculated, planned, and the program executed by millions of exuberant homeowners and first-time real estate investors, not suspecting the falling axe. But those in the know, the architects of the hedge funds, knew exactly what would transpire. They didn’t bet their billions on a hunch! Oh no, they calculated every phase of the process and watched it deliver dividends.

Let me offer this challenge to other Real Estate Brokerage firms, Mortgage Brokerage Firms, Banks, and Title Companies: Equity Alliance Properties will pledge ,000,000 of every ,000,000 it brings in net revenue towards any program signed into law organizing such private funding. Let’s take back control of the real estate business sector for

the greater good of the American homeowner!

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Robert Hand -
About the Author:

Robert Hand is the Designated Broker, Owner, President, and Founder of Equity

Alliance Properties, an

Arizona real estate firm. With over 12 years of experience in Arizona and

Phoenix area real estate, he offers a CLEAR ADVANTAGE for his clients.

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